Stocks futures were flat in overnight trading as investors weighed the latest inflation data for March.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20 points or 0.06%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.
Tuesday’s inflation data showed consumer prices rise 8.5% in March from the previous year — the highest level since 1981 — further fueling concerns of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Core CPI rose 0.3%, slightly below expectations.
“I think it’s very likely inflation peaked,” Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Tuesday. “If it didn’t peak in March, we’re in the process of peaking.”
The 10-year Treasury hit a new three-year high, topping 2.82% before pulling back to 2.727%.
After rallying earlier in the day the major averages closed Tuesday’s session in the negative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 87.72 points, or 0.26%, to 34,220.36. The S&P 500 slipped 0.34% to 4,397.45, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.30% to 13,371.57.
Seven sectors ended the day in the negative led by financials. Technology also struggled, with Microsoft and Meta closing down about 1%. Nvidia fell 1.9% and Advanced Micro Devices fell 2.3%, continuing a string of losses in the semiconductor industry.
Oil prices jumped as China relaxed some Covid-19 lockdowns which could have hard-hit demand. The international benchmark Brent crude rose 6.26% to $104.64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 6.69% to $100.60 per barrel. The moves sent energy stocks rising with Marathon Oil and Occidental Petroleum ending the day up 4.2% and 2.1%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.39% and hit a high of 100.332, its highest level since May 2020. Gold also added 1.43% and settled at $1,976.1.
Investors are looking ahead to the start of earnings season on Wednesday, which begins with JPMorgan and Delta Airlines.
UK inflation hits new 40-year high of 10.1% as food and energy price surge continues
U.K. inflation rose to another 40-year high in July as spiraling food and energy prices continued to intensify the country’s historic squeeze on households.
The consumer price index rose 10.1% annually, according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday, above a Reuters consensus forecast of 9.8% and up from 9.4% in June.
Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 6.2% in the year to July 2022, rising from 5.8% in June and ahead of projections of 5.9%.
British 2-year Gilt yields surged on Wednesday morning after the release, adding more than 26 basis points to reach 2.41%, their highest point since November 2008.
Rising food prices made the largest upward contribution to annual inflation rates between June and July, the ONS said in its report.
“Supermarkets have had little choice but to pass on price increases from suppliers, themselves contending with unprecedented inflation in raw material and ingredient input costs,” said Kien Tan, director of retail strategy at PwC.
“This has been particularly acute in labour and utility intensive categories like dairy, with reports of the price of a pint of milk having more than doubled in some stores since the start of the year.”
The ONS repeated that its indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates “suggest that the CPI rate would last have been higher around 1982, where estimates range from nearly 11% in January down to approximately 6.5% in December.”
The Bank of England has implemented six consecutive hikes to interest rates as it looks to rein in inflation, and earlier this month launched its largest single increase since 1995 while projecting that the U.K. will enter its longest recession since the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter of the year.
The Bank expects inflation to top out at 13.3% in October. Conservative Party leadership candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, one of whom will succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister on Sept. 5 after a poll of party members, are under increasing pressure to offer radical solutions to the country’s historic cost-of-living crisis.
The latest forecasts suggest the U.K.’s energy price cap could rise to £4,266 ($5,170) annually early next year from its current £1,971, with many households already choosing between heating and eating. The cap is expected to rise to more than £3,000 in October following the next review.
Real wages in the U.K. fell by an annual 3% in the second quarter of 2022, according to ONS data published Tuesday, the sharpest decline on record.
Despite average pay excluding bonuses increasing by 4.7%, the cost of living is far outpacing wage growth and squeezing household incomes.
“Today’s inflation figures serve as a further reminder to many UK households that they are facing a period of considerable financial hardship,” said Dan Howe, head of investment trusts at Janus Henderson.
“Consumers are already grappling with rising energy costs and surging household prices, all compounded by a lack of decisive action at the political level. Amid talks of strikes and energy blackouts, there is no doubt that tough decisions lie ahead of U.K. families.”
Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, predicted that the Bank of England will likely respond at its next monetary policy meeting with yet another 50 basis point interest rate hike in a bid to combat inflation, and said there is no doubt that the cost-of-living crisis is going to get worse before it gets better.
“As such, there will no doubt be a lot of pressure on the next Prime Minister to help soften the blow and the Bank of England will continue to have a very difficult job on its hands,” he added.
External reserves sustains downward trend, sheds $337m in 2wks
Nigeria’s external reserves fell by $337 million in the first two weeks of August, maintaining its declining trend since the middle of last month.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the external reserves fell to $38.882 billion on Thursday August 11th, 2022, from $39.219 billion at the end of July 2022.
This indicates that the external reserves has lost $563 million since July 18, when it commenced the latest downward trend.
Prior to July 18, the external reserves had maintained a 40 days upward trend, rising by $976 million to $39.445 billion from $38.421 billion on June 6th, buoyed by rise in the price of crude oil, which accounts for over 80 per cent of the nation’s foreign exchange earnings.
However, analysts at Financial Derivatives Company Limited, FDC, attributed the declining fortunes of the reserves since July 18 to increased dollar sales by the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, in its bid to stabilise the exchange rate.
While projecting further decline in the external reserves, they however maintained that the increased dollar supply by the apex bank will lead to appreciation of the naira at the official and parallel market.
Making this projection in the FDC Bi-Monthly Economic Bulletin, they said: “The depletion on the reserves was majorly due to CBN’s supply of foreign exchange to stabilise the currency.
“The external reserves is expected to continue its downward trend as the CBN intensifies its efforts to stabilise the currency by supplying foreign exchange to the I & E (Investors and Exporters) window.
“Because of the country’s low oil production levels, high oil prices may have less of an impact on the country’s external reserves.
“A constant depletion of the external reserves is likely to discourage the CBN from supplying foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market. This could further stoke currency depreciation as demand outpaces supply.”
Nigeria loses N101bn worth of oil, says OPEC
Nigeria’s crude oil production plunged by 2.3 million barrels in July 2022 when compared to what the country produced in the preceding month of June, data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries showed on Thursday.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2022, OPEC stated that crude oil production figures based on direct communication indicated that Nigeria’s output dropped by an average of 74,000 barrels per day in July.
This implies that for the 31 days in July, the country lost about 2.3 million barrels of crude oil. The organisation further stated that the average cost of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, during the month under review was $105.12/barrel.
By losing 2.3 million barrels in July this year, it means Nigeria’s oil earnings fell by about $241.1m or N101.13bn (at the official exchange rate of N419.37/$) in the month under review.
Data from OPEC showed that Nigeria’s oil production in June 2022 was 1.158 million barrels per day, but this dropped to 1.084 million barrels per day in July.
The country had produced 1.024 million barrels per day in May this year, according to figures released by OPEC on Thursday.
The Federal Government, operators and experts have consistently fingered crude oil theft in the Niger Delta as the major reason for Nigeria’s poor output and its continued failure to meet the monthly oil production quota approved by OPEC.
The Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr. Muda Yusuf, blamed the challenges in the oil sector on the high level of insecurity across the country.
This, he said, had continued to discourage investors in the sector, leading to lower production of crude oil and lower earnings for Nigeria despite the increased cost of crude.
He said, “Investors in the oil and gas sector continue to lament the challenges posed by insecurity, oil theft, unstable policies and inappropriate fiscal regimes.
“The downstream sector has continued to be weighed down by the pricing regimes and the regulatory environments which have continued to dim the growth prospects in the sector.”
Meanwhile OPEC stated that crude oil prices dipped in July, as against their costs in June, adding that crude in OPEC Reference Basket fell by $9.17 or 7.8 per cent month-on-month in July to average $108.55/barrel.
“Oil futures prices remained highly volatile in July, amid a sharp drop in liquidity. The ICE Brent front month declined $12.38 or 10.5 per cent in July to average $105.12/barrel and NYMEX WTI declined by $14.96 or 13.1 per cent to average $99.38/barrel,” the global oil cartel stated.
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